Who is the unseen boss behind Tinubu?

Under the 1999 Constitution, the President of Nigeria is the Commander‑in‑Chief of the Armed Forces. As the Chief Executive of the Federation, the Nigerian President is often regarded as one of the most powerful figures in the world, with the authority to influence or end the careers of many.

However, not all Nigerian presidents have demonstrated the same level of influence, particularly in security matters. Northern and Southern leaders have operated differently. The North has historically exercised greater control, while the South has often appeared constrained. During Olusegun Obasanjo’s two terms, Niger Delta militants challenged his administration despite his military background. When Umaru Yar’Adua, a civilian with health issues, offered an amnesty that the militants had previously rejected, they accepted, fearing that a refusal could lead to a broader conflict.

Obasanjo restructured the military, dismantling its coup-making apparatus, but he still relied on unnamed political forces. It was only in his second term that he pursued more aggressive policies, even seeking a third term.

Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari approached presidential powers differently. Jonathan expressed uncertainty about his authority, stating “Boko Haram is in my cabinet” and “I am not an emperor, pharaoh or general.” He also established almajiri schools that Northern leaders had not requested and conceded defeat before final results were announced. Buhari, before being elected, declared an agenda of “Fulanisation” and “Islamisation,” promising to extend sharia law nationwide. He allocated N100 bn from the federal treasury to Fulani herdsmen and initiated a $1.2 bn railway project from Kano to Maradi (Niger Republic) without parliamentary approval. Buhari also attempted to settle Fulani nomads from across Africa in indigenous communities, a move that faced resistance. The only notable challenge came from Nnamdi Kanu and the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB); others remained silent until the end of Buhari’s tenure.

In the South, Tinubu has been perceived as a powerful president who has awarded a N14 trn road contract to his friend and business partner, Gilbert Chagoury, and brought 32 of 36 state governors into the All Progressives Congress (APC). Yet, critics argue that he has been unable to protect the country from Fulani insurgents, jihadists, and bandits, despite placing many of his ethnic allies in military and security positions. Incidents such as the abduction of schoolchildren and the beheading of a teacher have occurred in his native region, with the government’s response described as tepid.

Before taking office, Tinubu raised questions about his independence. Hajiya Najatu Mohammed reported that Tinubu had declined to disclose his agenda for the North, fearing potential danger. After winning the March 2023 election, he pledged to continue Buhari’s policies, retaining most of the late Dan Daura’s political associates while discarding others. He has maintained a focus on Fulanisation and Islamisation.

Following threatening remarks by Miyetti Allah Kyautal Hore leader Bello Bodejo, Bodejo was arrested and charged with banditry and illegal possession of arms. A court ordered his release, and the federal government did not appeal. In contrast, Nnamdi Kanu has been labeled a terrorist for opposing the Islamisation agenda and advocating for a Biafra referendum. Bodejo is now an APC senatorial aspirant. Tinubu established a Livestock Ministry for Fulani and appointed himself and former INEC chair Prof. Attahiru Jega as co‑chairs of the Presidential Livestock Reform Council (PLRC).

Eight months after the November 2025 abduction of 25 girls from Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School, Kebbi State, Tinubu’s government and Defence Headquarters are still investigating the incident. Governor Nasir Idris reported that an unnamed official ordered troops away from the school’s vicinity before the abduction. The identity of the order‑giver remains unknown, and key officials accused of contributing to the spread of jihadism have not been fired or investigated.

Observers suggest that Tinubu may be restraining his actions to preserve his second‑term prospects, with speculation that he could adopt a more assertive stance if re‑elected. This potential shift raises concerns about the safety of Nigerians. Some question whether Southern presidents consistently wait for a second term to exercise full presidential powers, and whether an unseen force influences their decisions. Such dynamics have eroded confidence in the country for some observers.

If a president must defer to powers beyond the Constitution, that challenges the integrity of the nation.

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