The $1 Trillion Economy Will Soon Be an Illusion

By Dele Sobowale

If it takes a minute to produce a fool in America, Nigeria is producing them at a rate of one per second. Nigerian politicians operate on the Barnum principle: depending on who delivers the false dream, most Nigerians will believe it. Trust politicians and their creative advisers. When governments fail to deliver on their most important promises, they invent a magical future to divert attention from poor results. Only the most discerning people can spot the shift from reality to illusion; the vast majority of citizens accept the deception.

Remembering Vision 2020:20

“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to reap it” – George Santayana, 1863‑1952.

Nigerians are so forgetful that they rarely remember the past. Vision 2020 was launched in 1992 by the Babangida Administration with the goal of transforming Nigeria into one of the top 20 economies by 2020. Facilitators, speakers from Nigeria and abroad were invited; the cream of society from the public and private sectors, academia, and labour were present. Group thinking took over. No one, except one, questioned the assumption. I was the lone voice disputing the submissions. By then I had written for five years on this page. Shortly after the session in Abuja ended, I published an article outlining why Vision 2020 was a wild dream.

I did not stop there. I was invited as a guest speaker by Government College, Ughelli, Old Boys Association, Warri Branch to address the issue of Vision 2020. Anyone at that gathering would recall my remark that “if Nigeria attains top 20 economy status in 2020, I will publicly eat several copies of VANGUARD papers.” I was the lone voice of dissent in a nation of false economic prophets. On 31 December 2020, Nigeria ranked 32nd in the world.

Today, the country that economic witch doctors claimed would rank among the top 20 is sitting poorly in the 42nd position. A new set of sycophants in the Federal Government has begun another self‑deceptive campaign. Nigeria’s economy is now projected to reach $1 trillion in less than ten years.

Tinubu’s administration has become a captive of clones of those who persuaded IBB, Abacha, Yar ’Adua and even Jonathan that 2020 was possible. President Tinubu would be well advised to ignore them. In 2020, under Buhari, Nigeria experienced its worst economic recession, a 6.4 % decline in GDP – which has since entrenched the nation as the Poverty Capital of the world.

Why $1 trillion is a long way off

“Goals are dreams with deadlines” – Albert Einstein, 1879‑1955.

In economic matters, four important facts about dreams are: they must be realistic; the dreamers must wake up; there must be measurable incremental improvement; and every step taken after waking must move the dreamers toward the goal. Without these elements, dreams become illusory. Those were the missing ingredients when Nigeria embarked on Vision 2020.

Years ago, a U.S. long jumper set out to beat the existing world record. He measured it, created a training ground one foot longer, and eventually beat the old record by three and a half inches. It was not by chance; it required total focus on every aspect of the event.

To interrogate our ambition to become a trillion‑dollar economy, we must look at the countries that are already there. One, two, or three trillion‑dollar economies do not emerge from nowhere. Decisions and measures taken by governments over decades bring about the results. At the end of 2025, three countries were in the trillion‑dollar class – Switzerland, Poland and Taiwan. None of them reached that position by Nigeria, which reportedly had $290.5 billion Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Furthermore, Nigeria’s GDP growth was 2.7 % in 2023, 3.4 % in 2024, 3.9 % in 2025, and is now expected to reach 4.2 % in 2026. At 4.2 %, which is the best effort since 2015, it would require many years to reach one trillion – if the momentum is maintained. Candidate Tinubu, in the RENEWED HOPE document, promised to grow the economy at 10 % annually. President Tinubu is failing woefully. Finding out why we are falling behind is the beginning of wisdom. Here are a few causes of failure to ponder. Those intending to become members of a club must know the requirements for membership. Nigeria is definitely not ready to join the club; just as it was not ready to become top 20 in 2020 – despite the national self‑deception by false prophets.

Annual budget calamities

“Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result.”

Last week, the National Assembly, NASS, now a full‑fledged parastatal of the FG, announced that the closure of aspects of the 2025 budget has been postponed to September 2026. The principle of checks and balances that characterizes trillion‑dollar economies no longer exists in Nigeria. The Executive branch acts with impunity. The last three budgets were disastrous; the current one is set to join the parade of failed annual budgets, resulting in a higher debt burden.

Capital expenditure

“FG releases barely 5 % of N54.93 tn road budget” – Report, 17 June 2026.

All trillion