Oil revenue falls N7.88 trillion short of Q3 2025 budget target.

By Emma Ujah, Abuja Bureau Chief

Nigeria’s oil revenue performance fell sharply below budget expectations in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3’25). Gross oil revenue for the quarter was N4.87 trillion, a shortfall of N7.88 trillion, or 61.8%, compared with the quarterly budget projection.

The 2025 Q3 Budget Implementation Report released by the Budget Office of the Federation (BoF) also showed a fiscal deficit of N328 billion for the quarter.

According to the report, “Revenue shortfalls persisted in both oil and non‑oil receipts. Total FG revenue stood at N7.7 trillion and expenditure reached N8.03 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of N328.57 billion, financed through privatization proceeds and domestic borrowing.”

“The aggregate FGN Revenue of N7.7 trillion in the quarter under review represented 75.16% of the prorated target.”

The report noted that aggregate expenditure, including Government Owned Enterprises (GOEs) and Project‑tied Loans, stood at N8.03 trillion, about 58.4% of the prorated N13.75 trillion. The below‑target performance of the oil sector was identified as a key factor for the revenue shortfall.

“The price of crude oil in the international market averaged $68.50 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, which is $5.50 per barrel (7.43%) and $6.50 per barrel (8.67%) lower than $74.00 per barrel in the second quarter and the $75.00 per barrel benchmark price for the 2025 budget.”

“The nation in the third quarter of 2025 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.64 million barrels, lower than the second quarter of 2025 production volume of 1.68 mbpd and the production benchmark of 2.12 mbpd.”

“Gross Oil Revenue stood at N4.87 trillion in the third quarter, representing a shortfall of N7.88 trillion (61.80%) from the N12.76 trillion prorated quarterly gross oil revenue in the 2025 Budget,” the report stated.

However, gross non‑oil revenue of N6.52 trillion received in the quarter under review signified a marginal increase of N468.58 billion (7.74%) above the quarterly estimate of N6.05 trillion.

The report showed, “The net distributable revenue for the three tiers of government after cost deductions stood at N10.29 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, representing a shortfall of N6.57 trillion (38.98%).”

The Q3 report highlighted the challenge posed by high debt‑servicing obligations of the federal government, as debt servicing took N3.41 trillion, far higher than non‑debt recurrent expenditure of N2.66 trillion.

“A total of N2.66 trillion was spent on non‑debt recurrent expenditure in the third quarter of 2025. This represents a decrease of N739.01 billion (21.75%) from the quarterly estimate of N3.40 trillion.”

“Total Debt Service in the third quarter of 2025 stood at N3.41 trillion, indicating a decrease of N171.90 billion (4.80%) below the N3.58 trillion projected for the quarter.”

“The sum of N1.80 trillion was projected for domestic debt servicing during the period under review. The amount used for domestic debt servicing was, however, N111.07 billion or 6.18% above the projection for the quarter.”

“External debt service was N1.69 trillion in the quarter, N211.72 billion or 12.55% below the prorated projected figure for the period.”

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