Jonathan and Nigeria’s Political Wonderland

“I thought of Napoleon, 1769-1821, who said the word “impossible” does not exist or should not exist” – German philosopher.

After former President Goodluck Jonathan was nominated on 30 May 2026 as the presidential candidate of a faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Abuja, the author notes that Nigeria’s political landscape continues to defy expectations. The author observes that former allies can become rivals and former opponents can unite, often simply by changing parties.

The author had previously republished an article written in October of the previous year when the African Democratic Congress (ADC) was being formed and Jonathan was being considered as a potential candidate. At that time, it was unclear whether Jonathan could legally run again. The PDP, despite its challenges, was seen as the only viable platform for his return. However, the Supreme Court later cleared the General Election of Jonathan (GEJ), and the ADC and the Nigerian Democratic Coalition (NDC) closed their doors to him. The ADC and NDC had been taken over by Atiku/Amaechi and Obi/Kwakwanso respectively. Consequently, the PDP remained the only possible avenue, even though the Wike faction threatened legal action. Jonathan’s re‑entry into the PDP may have weakened Wike’s influence, and some hard‑line PDP members might view GEJ as a more credible leader than Wike’s nominee. The author asks what Nigerians can expect.

RIGHT NOW A POLITICAL CIRCUS IN PROGRESS

“Idealists in politics lack a sense of reality; and a politician must be a realist above all” – Henry Miller, Vanguard Book of Quotations, p 192.

The author describes the current political scene as a circus, suggesting that some candidates appear to be participating in a game rather than serious public service. Candidates emerging from primaries in most parties seem to be having fun, and many flag‑bearers are obscure, raising doubts about their seriousness. The Labour Party is cited as an example: its candidate, who finished third in 2023, was replaced by an almost unknown figure after a strong opponent was eliminated. The author notes that, with the exception of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the NDC, most parties have produced two presidential candidates through either comical primaries or consensus arrangements, which the author criticizes as a strategy that has sparked revolt in many states. The author warns that courts and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) may face many cases arising from these primaries.

The author also notes that the political “Ebola” has spread to governorship elections, with candidates who cannot govern themselves being elected. Opposition leaders, who could have united to challenge President Tinubu, have instead formed a loose coalition of about six candidates from small parties. The author describes how former allies are now in conflict.

WHAT EXACTLY IS A POLITICAL PARTY?

“A political party must represent the ideals and aspirations of the people. Otherwise, it is just a mere conspiracy to seize power.” That was one definition of a political party offered by the late U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower, 1890‑1969.

The author acknowledges that this definition is imperfect but useful. The author raises questions about which party currently represents the majority of Nigerians’ ideals and whether a politician can change parties and still claim to represent citizens. The author argues that Nigerians are now voting for organized conspiracies rather than parties’ platforms, and that personality politics has become a major factor. Jonathan’s potential entry, if allowed by the courts, is seen as a significant threat to other candidates’ ambitions.

GEJ THREATENS ALL THE OTHERS

“The game‑changer forces everybody to alter their plans” – American basketball player.

The author notes that Buhari’s eight years and Tinubu’s three years have made Jonathan more appealing than the APC or others might have imagined in 2015. Jonathan lost to Buhari partly because of alleged widespread corruption and his perceived mismanagement of the Chibok abduction. The author argues that, as abductions have become more common, Jonathan has performed better than Buhari and Tinubu. The author states that, by objective measures, the Nigerian economy performed better under Jonathan, and that the country might have avoided the trauma of fuel subsidy removal if the “Progressives” had not opposed Jonathan’s 2012 proposal. The author suggests that economic data from 2012‑2014 compared with 2023‑2025 will be hard for Tinubu to challenge. Jonathan is the only candidate who has been president before.

All other candidates, except Atiku, are said to struggle to demonstrate their understanding of how the federal government works. The author predicts that Obi, Makinde, and Donald Duke will spend at least their first two years learning the system, potentially making costly mistakes.

Atiku may benefit from Jonathan’s late entry. Jonathan increases the number of Southern candidates, potentially shifting voting patterns. Bayelsa APC members may abandon Tinubu, and Ijaw voters in Rivers, Delta, Edo, and Ondo may vote for him. The author suggests that this could be the last chance for the Igbo to influence the presidency. The main battlegrounds are the remaining South‑South and South‑West states for Southern candidates. Tinubu will need more support from the South‑West to offset losses in the North. Atiku, as the only Northern candidate, already has a large advantage in name recognition, a vast Northern network, and recent shifts in support among Northerners, particularly the Fulani, away from Tinubu. The author notes that ethnicity has become more important than merit or governance ability, framing the contest as Yoruba versus Fulani. Historical precedents suggest how voters may decide on Election Day, unless incumbency powers alter the outcome. The author concludes that Jonathan has a chance if the North allows the South four more years, and that no one believes Peter Obi will serve only one term if elected.

MINISTER OF ESTIMATED BILLING CLOBBERED BY ESTIMATED COUNTING

“The evil that men do lives after them…” – William Shakespeare, 1564‑1616. The author says this is half of the story about retributions. The author notes that Candidate Tinubu, in the RENEWED HOPE document, promised to end estimated billing (page 30). Mr. Adelabu was appointed Minister of Power, but after almost three years he left Nigerians with estimated billing intact, allowing DISCOs to defraud consumers even more than before. Tariffs rose 300 percent, and service delivery remained poor.

Despite this performance, Adelabu sought to run for governor of Oyo State on the APC platform. The author claims that Adelabu’s failure to win the contest was due to “over‑estimated counting.” The author describes personal experience with high estimated bills for a two‑bedroom bungalow in Lagos, and notes that letters and petitions to NERC and the Ministry went unanswered. The author calls for accountability for Adelabu’s actions.

“God bless all those who participated in the Oyo State APC primaries. I will pray for you forever.”

•Follow me on Facebook @ J Israel Biola.

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