Insecurity: Incompetence, Collusion, or Both?

My geography teacher in secondary school, Mr. Ikoro, once shared a saying that has remained with me for more than five decades: “Every charitable or uncharitable attitude is a boomerang.” The principle that a person’s actions—good or bad—carry consequences is now often expressed with the Sanskrit word “karma.”

Recently, President Bola Tinubu was recorded on video saying, “My enemies want to use insecurity in the country to get rid of me. But I am a stubborn politician who refuses to go, and I will campaign for my second term.” Whether he was seeking sympathy from Nigerians is unclear. Those familiar with how insecurity expanded beyond its North‑East origins might argue that the same political forces that once tried to undermine former President Goodluck Jonathan now influence the current and former All Progressives Congress (APC) presidents, Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Tinubu.

During his 70th birthday in 2019, former APC chairman Abubakar Kawu Baraje was widely quoted as alleging that some Northern leaders in his party had hired Fulani gunmen from Sahel countries to operate in Zamfara forests and attack the government of former President Goodluck Jonathan if Buhari was “rigged out” in the 2015 election. He later claimed he was misreported. Ultimately, Jonathan peacefully conceded to Buhari and left office.

Jonathan had stated that he was not a “Pharaoh, emperor or general.” Many praised his restraint in a situation where others might have cracked down on opponents and their mercenaries. Yet, if he had proactively targeted the militants assembling in Zamfara, eliminated them, and prosecuted their sponsors—as the constitution required—perhaps the country could have avoided the current crisis. Critics argue that Jonathan abdicated his responsibilities, and the present turmoil is a consequence. The same question arises when considering leaders such as General Ibrahim Babangida, Gen. Sani Abacha, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, or the current President Nyesom Wike.

When Buhari took office, he allowed “bandits,” many of whom were his ethnic kinsmen, to operate between Zamfara and Niger States, facilitating cattle rustling instead of returning stolen livestock. He later opened borders and actively imported armed foreign Fulani to join Nigerian counterparts, distributing them across forests nationwide as part of an Islamisation and Fulanisation agenda. When Tinubu came to power three years ago, he pledged to follow Buhari’s footsteps.

Many Nigerians believed Tinubu was merely maintaining Buhari’s momentum. However, under his administration, the Fulani armed threat has escalated into a widespread problem. The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom recently reported that over 30,000 armed Fulani militants operate across Nigeria. Under Tinubu, the threat extends beyond Boko Haram, ISWAP, Fulani herdsmen gangs, and bandits inherited from Buhari. Additional jihadist groups, such as Lakurawa and Mahmuda, have targeted communities in Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, and now Oyo.

A particularly deadly school abduction occurred in southern Nigeria for the first time. Terrorists beheaded an abducted maths teacher, Michael Oyedokun, on live video, marking their signature. They raided nursery, primary, and secondary schools, abducting 39 pupils and seven teachers in Orire LGA of Oyo State. The captives have remained in custody for more than two weeks. Some Oyo-based terrorists have warned Agbekoya hunters in Odeda LGA of Ogun State that they would soon carry out a school abduction in their area. It is only a matter of time before they target Lagos.

Meanwhile, as teachers went on strike in some South‑West states this week, reports emerged that Fulani terrorists attacked on Sunday, 31 May 2026, at Awgu Junction in Enugu State, randomly killing five people and displaying their bodies on the Enugu‑Port Harcourt Expressway. Shootings and abductions of passengers were also reported around the Nunya/Okigwe axis of the Expressway, disrupting the movement of hundreds of travellers. The situation suggests that school abductions could spread to the South‑East and South‑South.

Tinubu’s claim that his “enemies” are using insecurity to oust him raises the question: why are they apparently succeeding? Even if Fulani terrorists number over 30,000, they are still far fewer than the 230,000‑strong Nigerian Army, 371,000‑man Nigerian Police, 15,000‑20,000 men of the Nigerian Navy, and 18,000‑person Nigerian Air Force, plus the Directorate of State Security Service, Civil Defence, and other agencies. They benefit from state authority and the monopoly of power under Tinubu’s command.

Like Buhari, Tinubu has appointed his ethnic kinsmen to head the Army, Police, DSS, and other key revenue offices—NNPLC, CBN, Federal Ministry of Finance, Customs, and others. With these advantages, the weakness against the ragtag jihadist threat remains puzzling. Two explanations circulate: one suggests Tinubu, like Buhari, lacks the capacity to resolve the issue; the other claims “they are colluding,” as Gen. T. Y. Danjuma said. Perhaps both are true, driven by a party agenda. It is up to Nigerians to decide what to do in 2027.

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