Assessing Tinubu's Economic Performance from 2023 to 2025

By Dele Sobowale

On May 29, 2026, President Tinubu concluded his third term and presented a narrative of Nigeria’s economic trajectory from 2023 to 2025, along with projections for 2026 and beyond should he be re‑elected. The speech was filled with optimistic claims that, according to critics, lacked substantive evidence. The article examines the core economic promises made in the Renewed Hope Agenda and compares them with actual performance data.

Gross Domestic Product, GDP

“The truth shall set you free; but, first, it shall make you miserable.”

During the campaign, Tinubu outlined specific GDP targets that were later reiterated on May 29, 2026. The following table contrasts those promises with the actual figures reported by the World Bank and IMF.

Gross Domestic Product, GDP ($bn)

PROMISE* ACTUAL+ VARIANCE

2023 531.3 363.2 -168.1

2024 586.7 252.1 -334.6

2025 643.3 386.4 -256.9

GDP Growth Rate (%)

PROMISE* ACTUAL+ VARIANCE

2023 10 2.7 -7.3

2024 10 1.9 -8.1

2025 10 4.1 -5.9

* All the promises can be found on page 13 of the Renewed Hope Document

+ Actual data were sourced from World Bank/IMF Reports

Variances represent differences between the promises made and the actual results for the three years – 2023 to 2025.

The figures reveal three key points. First, the targets set for each year were overly ambitious, especially given Tinubu’s own description of the economy as “on the brink of collapse.” Second, the expectation of a 10 % annual GDP growth rate from an economy that had never achieved such performance is unrealistic. Under Buhari, Nigeria’s growth exceeded 2 % only twice in eight years, and the country experienced recessions in 2016 and 2020. Third, economies that have recorded sustained 10 % growth—such as the USSR, Japan, and China—have benefited from high capital expenditure, reliable and affordable power, extensive infrastructure development, high literacy rates, transparency, accountability, and strict budget implementation. Nigeria’s economy lacks many of these fundamentals, making sustained 10 % growth unlikely.

Power promise

“Eliminate Estimated Billing. We will end this unpopular and harmful practice and ensure that all electricity bills are meter‑based.” – Renewed Hope Agenda, p 30.

At the end of Tinubu’s third year, many Nigerians, including the author, still receive estimated electricity bills despite petitions to the regulatory commission and the Ministry of Power. The president is reportedly aware that no other country permits the practice of estimated billing. How many more years will it take to fulfill this promise?

Fuel and rising poverty

“Petrol price soars 643 % in three years.” Report, June 2, 2026

The sharp increase in fuel prices has contributed to rising poverty. Whether using private vehicles or public transport, the 600 % rise in fuel costs has outpaced most income growth, exacerbating poverty levels. Combined with increases in cooking gas prices and phone recharge costs, the burden on ordinary Nigerians has intensified. Less than two percent of the population benefits from current reforms, while the majority bear the costs.

The post Truth about Tinubu’s economic performance 2023 to 2025 appeared first on Vanguard News.