All Eyes Turn Again to Amupitan

INEC should ensure the forthcoming elections are credible

There is a peculiar weight to a first impression, and the man who currently chairs the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is about to carry its heaviest version. When voters in seven states go to the polls on Saturday, Professor Joash Amupitan will not, strictly speaking, be conducting his first election. He has already presided over the Anambra governorship poll last November and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) area council elections in February. And he has not been shy about citing both as evidence of his commission’s competence. But June 20 is something else entirely. It will be the first time his INEC conducts six legislative elections across five zones in the country, and on the same date, the Ekiti State governorship election where the incumbent Governor Biodun Oyebanji of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is contesting against candidates of 13 other political parties.

For the bye‑elections, three of the seats became vacant through death. Enugu North lost Senator Okey Ezea last November; Nasarawa North lost Senator Godiya Akwashiki in December; and Rivers South‑East lost Senator Barinada Mpigi early this year. The fourth senatorial seat, Ondo South, became vacant when Senator Jimoh Ibrahim resigned to take up appointment as Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations. To these four are added the Dawakin Kudu/Warawa federal constituency in Kano State and the Zuru constituency in Kebbi State.

For several months, the people of these districts have gone without anyone to speak for them in the chambers to which they are entitled. The first purpose of June 20 is to restore that voice. And it deserves to be restored properly. But these are no easy elections. Bye‑elections are precisely where the worst habits of our politics tend to hide, for the unglamorous reason that few people are watching. Turnout at our general elections is already dismal. In 2023, barely more than a quarter of registered voters cast a ballot in the presidential contest, the lowest figure in the history of the Fourth Republic. At a bye‑election the numbers are smaller still, and a poll that turns on a handful of units in a thin turnout can be bought, rigged or intimidated far more cheaply than a national one. The fewer the eyes, the greater the temptation.

That is the paradox Amupitan must hold in mind. These are not low‑stakes elections, because they are small. They are high‑risk elections because they are small, and because the country has learned, at considerable cost, how much damage can be done in the shadows where no one is looking.

To his credit, Amupitan has so far said the right things and, in two outings at least, appears to have done them. He has insisted, again and again, that votes will count. He has named vote‑buying and vote‑trading as a major threat to the nation’s democracy and has charged the security personnel to arrest and prosecute offenders rather than look away. He has pressed for issue‑based campaigns and warned candidates against the smear and character assassination that pass, too often, for political argument in this country. And he has set himself a public yardstick on the very matter that has done more than any other to corrode confidence in our elections, the transmission of results.

By Amupitan’s own account, 93 per cent of the results in the Anambra governorship election were on the viewing portal by seven o’clock on election night. That is the standard he has chosen to be measured. The question June 20 will answer is whether that standard survives contact with seven elections held at once, in seven very different places.

Since the day he took the oath, Amupitan has pledged to give Nigeria credible elections. But no matter how thoroughly INEC prepares, and no matter how sound the law under which it operates, an election can still be undone by security agencies that are partisan, compromised or simply overwhelmed. We hope the security agencies have mapped out their plans for Ekiti State, Enugu North, Nasarawa North, Rivers South‑East, Ondo South, Dawakin Kudu/Warawa in Kano State and Zuru in Kebbi State. May the best candidates win.